Thursday, 20 July 2017

‘Israeli’ Aqsa Policies in Palestinian Eyes: Escalation Always 1st Option, The Enemy Will Pay a Heavy Price!

As the ‘Israeli’ occupation regime intensifies its apartheid measures restricting access to al-Aqsa Holy Mosque, Palestinian voices stressed that their first option ever will remain escalation against this cruel entity, adding that the enemy will pay a heavy price for this.

‘Israeli' Aqsa Policies in Palestinian Eyes: Escalation Is Always First Option, The Enemy Will Pay a Heavy Price!

Following heroic Palestinian resistance operations against the occupation army soldiers, the enemy tended to impose new so-called ‘security’ measures which included the installation of metal detectors and cameras.
It was last Friday that a heroic operation carried out by Palestinian youngsters in the Old City of occupied al-Quds martyred three Palestinians, killing at least two ‘Israeli’ occupation soldiers and wounding several others, the last incident before such restrictions were imposed.
Nevertheless, scores of Palestinian worshipers held prayers outside the compound, neglecting the ‘Israeli’ will to deprive them from performing their religious duties in such a sacred site.
Seeking official stances regarding the ongoing tensions, al-Ahed team in Palestine managed to conduct several interviews with Palestinian figures:
In this regard, the head of the “al-Morabiteen in al-Quds” group Yousef Mukhaimer stressed the invalidity of the fait accompli recently imposed by the authorities of the Zionist enemy in the al-Aqsa Mosque and its surroundings.

‘Israeli' Aqsa Policies in Palestinian Eyes: Escalation Is Always First Option, The Enemy Will Pay a Heavy Price!

Mukhaimer confirmed that this new reality did not, and will not provide the occupation any legitimacy or eligibility within the Muslims’ first Qibla [destination].
“What has been happening since last Friday, from terrorizing worshipers, preventing residents from reaching the mosque, and then installing electronic gates at the main entrances under security pretexts is entirely unacceptable and must be addressed at various levels,” Mukhaimer told al-Ahed’s correspondent.
He warned that this invasive attack is not a coincidence but rather the implementation of preplanned schemes.
“We are looking very seriously at the direct targeting of the al-Morabiteen who have formed – and continue to be – the line of defense of the honorable city from the occupation’s ambitions and its settler groups, who are pursuing the construction of the so-called Temple,” Mukhaimer said.
He explained that the main aim of what is happening now is to enable the advocates of the Temple and other extremist Zionist groups to widely desecrate the al-Aqsa Mosque after they have emptied it of its Muslim worshipers in full view of the nation which has not acted until this moment despite the looming dangers threatening the mosque and its identity.
“The situation has reached its lowest point. Denying access to the Aqsa Mosque is no longer confined to the people of the Gaza Strip or some areas of the West Bank, but today it includes all those who are outside the borders of the holy city,” Mukhaimer adds.
He stressed that the people of al-Quds with all their religious components and locations have taken it upon themselves to confront the attempts to enable the western settlers to tamper with “our sanctities and toy with our sentiments, no matter the challenges and costs.”
Mukhaimer concluded by saying: “Our message today to the people of the nation throughout the globe is that al-Quds and the Aqsa is not the property of the Palestinians. Protecting the sites is a collective responsibility no one is excluded from, both on the official and popular level.”
Additionally, member of the Political Bureau of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Kayed al-Ghoul, called on local forces and factions to use the current “opportunity” and work on framing any upcoming resistance action within a comprehensive uprising against the Zionist occupier and its Judaization projects.

‘Israeli' Aqsa Policies in Palestinian Eyes: Escalation Is Always First Option, The Enemy Will Pay a Heavy Price!

“I believe that what is happening could trigger a new intifada,” al-Ghoul told al-Ahed. “Therefore the political authorities are required to prepare for the aftermath and provide the organizational pillars and other elements to ensure the continuation of this intifada as an effective method of struggle in confronting the occupation’s and its settlers’ roistering”.
Al-Ghoul expressed no “doubt [that] al-Quds always represents a spark for the Palestinian uprisings.”
“Therefore, the recent aggressive ‘Israeli’ actions are an explosion factor in what lies in the hearts of the masses of our people, who have a large reservoir of anger towards the occupation’s expansionist and racist policy,” he added.
“In order to be able to deal with this policy, we need to unify the Palestinian position in resisting these measures. In this period, we also need to focus on strengthening the steadfastness of our people in al-Quds, who are threatened by the danger of mass displacement in the coming period.”
The “Popular Front” leader also pointed to the “need to bring back the liberal nature of the struggle of the Palestinian people so that it will be an open and comprehensive conflict with the occupation throughout the country.”
Al-Ghoul called on the Arab people to defend the al-Quds cause, support the struggle of the Palestinian people and press their regimes that brag about the al-Quds cause through satellite channels without lifting a finger over the growing Zionist violations.
Earlier on Tuesday, Palestinian military wings of various political factions in the besieged Gaza Strip warned the apartheid “Israeli” entity of continuing its restrictive policies at al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East al-Quds during a press conference.
Warning that “Israel’s” aggression on al-Aqsa represents a “spark that will explode in the region,” they further stressed that “the expense of attacking al-Aqsa will be very big in which neither the occupation army nor its settlers would be able tolerate.”
“We will have our strong and supreme word if Zionist plans against al-Aqsa continue,” the groups had warned in the press conference. “We will not allow our enemy to invade our al-Aqsa, our holy sites, and our people in al-Quds.”

Al-Ahed News
19-07-2017 | 15:52

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Netanyahu Invites Top Saudi Officials to Al-Aqsa


18-07-2017 | 15:25
Amidst the escalation of tensions in al-Aqsa as well as the Saudi-“Israeli” normalization of ties, the “Israeli” entity’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invited top Saudi officials to visit the al-Aqsa mosque.
Saudi King Salman and
The invite came after Saudi King Salman personally passed a message of objection to the entity after the apartheid “Israeli” regime decided to place metal detectors at the entrance to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound on Sunday.
Salma’s message was passed to the “Israeli” entity via Washington that the compound should be reopened to worshipers, Saudi news site Elaph reported on Tuesday.
For its part, the Waqf – the Muslim religious body that has authority over the site – announced that the metal detectors are an attempt to change the status quo and called on worshipers not to enter the site.
According to the report, Netanyahu sent a message in response to the Saudi King’s demands, in which he vowed that the status quo at the site won’t be harmed, and even invited senior Saudi officials to al-Aqsa Mosque to examine it for themselves.
However, he did not receive a response from the Saudis.
The report went on to say that in a phone call Netanyahu held with Jordanian King Abdullah on Saturday night, Bibi protested a speech by the speaker of the Jordanian Parliament, Atef a-Tarawana, who attacked the “Israeli” entity over its conduct on the al-Aqsa Mosque area. “The speech was irresponsible,” Netanyahu told Abdullah.
Accordingly, there was no comments from “Israeli” Prime Minister’s Bureau.
Source: News Agencies, Edited by website team

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Wednesday, 19 July 2017

Putin and Trump and the step-by-step: Henry Kissinger’s advices بوتين وترامب والخطوة خطوة: نصائح هنري كيسنجر

Putin and Trump and the step-by-step: Henry Kissinger’s advices

يوليو 17, 2017
Written by Nasser Kandil,
It was remarkable for those who observe the Russian-US relationship the presidential meetings of the coordinator of the golden era in the US diplomacy the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who has arranged the withdrawal from Vietnam and led skillfully the openness up to China, he sponsored the understandings of cease-fire after the war of October 1973 between Syria and Israel. His held meetings for seven month included his meetings with the presidents of China, America, and Russia. He did not hide his keenness to provide the advice and the consultation to the leaders of the three countries regarding the danger of the collision, the escalation of the confrontations, and the adoption of a speech that claims imposing exclusivity or imposing wills, as long as the nuclear war is impossible. All of these three countries have what is enough of sidelines and capacities to wage a war of attrition that will force sitting at the table at the end, but after the profits of the negotiation have become much less than the cost incurred by each one of them in the absurd wars of attrition. Henry Kissinger did not stop talking about the hypothesis of the opportunity of winner-to-winner understanding in the international relationships, because confronting the terrorism is not mere a moral or humanitarian issue but a higher interest issue according to all these countries, moreover the system which they have has great motives to be based on the stability in the world, where it can grant the opportunities of prosperity and growth of their economies. Because reducing the expenditure of the races of the nuclear arming will save many of the resources to be spent in the development plans and to have their revenues, and because most of the conflicts do not revolve around the ability of a team to extract unilateral influence in a region, however around sharing the influence in the solutions not in the wars depending on the ability of each party to disrupt the other’s unilateral influence.
The few presentations of Kissinger and what is reported from him with optimism stems from the awareness of the leaders of Russia, China, and America that the understanding is their fate, he does not overcome the difficulties to announce an understanding especially according to the US President who is surrounded with a preemptive war that was waged against him under the title of accusing him with weakness comparing with the Russian President, but at the same time he does not negate the opportunities of unannounced slow understandings that lead to stop the attrition and to pave the way for showing the consequences of the understanding in order to build on them, until the moment of establishing a new world system which becomes an urgent necessary for each of the three countries. The absence of the system, the spread of chaos, and the danger of terrorism is more critical than the presence of a system even if it is subject to sharing with others, especially according to Washington which likes to talk about the exclusivity and the unilateral pole  and the eagerness to restore it, since the exclusivity and the unilateral pole are no longer exist, so the insistence on not recognizing their fall does not revive them, on the contrary it leads to world with no system, where the chaos and the terrorism will grow and continue, and the number of the failing countries will increase, thus this will provide more opportunities for further chaos and terrorism.
Depending on Kissinger’s experience in the concept of “step by step” which he adopted in reaching to an agreement of disengagement between Syria and Israel in 1974 after ten months of the war, the best scenario of Putin-Trump summit can be expected, which starts with setting the rules of engagement and showing the forbidden areas at the state of collision, which means; the lines which must not be reached no matter how long the dispute remains and the struggle continues, this is known clearly by the two teams. According to Washington this is represented by not supporting the Korean President to cover his escalation against Washington, not to collide with the Syrian country, its army and its President, and at the same time not  to provide the US cover to Saudi Arabia to wage a war against Qatar, on the other hand, Russia must not undermine the opponent regime in Ukraine, after that to link the conflict by identifying the issues around which the race, the competition and the conflict can continue, but under the ceiling of recording points and having more pressing papers waiting for a new round, taking into considerations the gas market and the race on the markets of the western Europe, testing each team of its capacities in order to reserve fixed shares in this market, as well as the direct relationship or through the allies with each of Iran, Turkey, and Israel whether positively or negatively on the basis of the exclusion of the threat of confrontations which affects the stability. The south of Syria will have such of these arrangements as the Kurds in its north and the Gulf, like controls to prevent the collisions and therefore to reach the appropriate moment for the major understandings or the historical deal, but to take into account the strategic maps, where Russia has a recognized presence politically, militarily, and economically in the countries in which it was their arena in the Cold War, and some of the interests outside it, contrary to America, and to restrict the variables on the maps in order to discuss their fate especially the new major players at their forefront Iran.
No one thinks that the issue is related to the differences of opinions, jurisprudences, positons, because everything is announced and clear. America’s desire is to resize the position of Russia which returns strongly to the international economic, military, and political arena. While Russia has invested what is enough to impose its presence in new form, so it is not possible to expect its regression after it has imposed new unbreakable equations that cannot be neglected. The dialogue starts from the US recognition that the cooperation is a need, while according to Russia it is a goal.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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بوتين وترامب والخطوة خطوة: نصائح هنري كيسنجر

يوليو 8, 2017

ناصر قنديل

لفتت نظر كلّ الذين يتابعون العلاقة الروسية الأميركية اللقاءاتُ الرئاسية لمهندس الحقبة الذهبية في الدبلوماسية الأميركية الوزير الأسبق للخارجية هنري كيسنجر، الذي صمّم وأخرج الانسحاب من فييتنام وقاد ببراعة الانفتاح على الصين ورعى تفاهمات وقف النار بعد حرب تشرين 1973 بين سورية و«إسرائيل». وقد شملت لقاءاته خلال سبعة شهور رؤساء الصين وأميركا وروسيا، ولم يخف الإعلان عن حرصه على تقديم المشورة والنصح لقادة الدول الثلاثة بخطورة التصادم وتصعيد المواجهات، والوقوف وراء خطاب يدّعي فرص التفرّد أو فرض الإرادات، طالما أنّ الحرب النووية مستحيلة، وأنّ لدى كلّ من هذه الدول ما يكفي من الهوامش والمقدرات لخوض حرب استنزاف ستفرض الجلوس على الطاولة في النهاية، لكن بعدما تكون كلّ مكاسب التفاوض قد صارت أقلّ بكثير من الكلّفة التي تكبّدها كلّ منهم في حروب الاستنزاف العبثية. ومن جهة مقابلة لم يكفّ كيسنجر عن التحدّث حول فرضية وجود فرصة تفاهم رابح رابح في العلاقات الدولية، لأنّ مواجهة الإرهاب ليست مجرد قضية أخلاقية وإنسانية، بل مصلحة عليا لكلّ من هذه الدول وللنظام الذي يملكون دوافع كبيرة لإشادته على الاستقرار في العالم بما يتيح فرص الرخاء والنمو لاقتصاداتهم ولأنّ تخفيض الإنفاق على سباقات التسلح النووي سيوفر الكثير من الموارد لإنفاقها في خطط التنمية والفوز بعائداتها ولأنّ أغلب الصراعات لا تدور حول قدرة فريق على انتزاع نفوذ أحادي في منطقة من العالم بل حول نسب تقاسم النفوذ في الحلول، وليس في الحروب، استناداً لقدرة كلّ طرف على تعطيل أحادية نفوذ الآخر.

يوحي كيسنجر في إطلالاته القليلة وما يُنقل عنه بتفاؤل نابع من إدراك قادة روسيا والصين وأميركا بأنّ التفاهم قدرهم جميعاً. وهو لا يقلل من صعوبات الخروج بإعلان التفاهم، خصوصاً بالنسبة للرئيس الأميركي المحاط بحرب استباقية خيضت عليه تحت عنوان اتهامه بالضعف أمام الرئيس الروسي، لكنه لا ينفي فرص تفاهمات غير معلنة تسير ببطء وتثبت أرضية وقف الاستنزاف وتفتح باب تظهير عائدات التفاهم ما يتيح البناء عليها ومواصلة التظهير والبناء حتى تحين لحظة ترسيخ قواعد نظام عالمي جديد بات ضرورياً وملحاً لكلّ من الدول الثلاث. فغياب النظام وسيادة الفوضى وخطر الإرهاب أشدّ كلفة من مجرد وجود نظام ولو كان تشاركياً مع الغير، خصوصاً على واشنطن التي قد يروق لها الحديث عن التفرّد وأحادية القطبية، والحنين لاستعادتها، وهما تفرّد وأحادية لم يعودا موجودين، والإصرار على عدم الاعتراف بسقوطهما لا يُعيدهما للوجود بل يُبقي العالم بلا نظام ويبقي الفوضى والإرهاب في تنامٍ مستمرّ وزيادة عدد الدول الفاشلة في تصاعد ما يوفر المزيد من الفرص للمزيد من الفوضى والإرهاب.

بالاستناد إلى خبرة كيسنجر في مفهوم الخطوة خطوة التي اتبعها في التوصّل لاتفاق فك الاشتباك بين سورية و«إسرائيل» عام 1974 بعد عشرة شهور من الحرب، يمكن توقّع السيناريو الأفضل المنتظر من قمة بوتين ترامب، بأن يبدأ بوضع قواعد الاشتباك ورسم المناطق المحرّمة في التصادم، أيّ الخطوط التي لا يجب بلوغها مهما بقي الخلاف قائماً والصراع مستمراً. وهي معلومة للفريقين بوضوح، تمثل عند واشنطن عدم تقديم الدعم للرئيس الكوري لتغطية تصعيده بوجه واشنطن، وعدم دخول واشنطن بتصادم مع الدولة السورية وجيشها ورئيسها. وفي المقابل عدم توفير التغطية الأميركية للسعودية لشنّ حرب في قطر، وعدم قيام روسيا بتقويض النظام المناوئ لها في أوكرانيا. ثم الصعود درجة على السلم لربط نزاع، بتحديد القضايا التي يمكن مواصلة السباق والتنافس والصراع حولها، لكن تحت سقف تسجيل النقاط وامتلاك المزيد من الأوراق بانتظار جولة مقبلة. وهنا يحضر سوق الغاز والسباق، خصوصاً على أسواق أوروبا الغربية، واختبار كلّ فريق مقدراته على حجز حصص ثابتة في هذه السوق، كما تحضر العلاقة المباشرة أو عبر الحلفاء بكلّ من إيران وتركيا و«إسرائيل» سلباً وإيجاباً على قاعدة استبعاد خطر المواجهات التي تهزّ الاستقرار، فيصير لجنوب سورية نصيب من الترتيبات، ولشمالها مع الأكراد نصيب، وللخليج نصيب، كضوابط لمنع التصادمات، ليتمّ الصعود لاحقاً على درجة جديدة من السلم وبلوغ اللحظة المناسبة للتفاهمات الكبرى أو الصفقة التاريخية وفيه تحضر على الطاولة خرائط الاستراتيجية، حيث لروسيا حضور معترَف به سياسياً وعسكرياً واقتصادياً في الدول التي كانت ساحة نفوذها في الحرب الباردة، وبعض المصالح خارجها، والعكس بالنسبة لأميركا، وحصر الحالات المتغيّرة على الخريطة لبحث مصيرها، وخصوصاً اللاعبين الكبار الجدد وفي مقدّمتهم إيران.

لا يتوهّم أحد أنّ القضية خلافات رأي واجتهادات مواقف. فكلّ شيء معلن وواضح، رغبة أميركا بتحجيم مكانة روسيا العائدة بقوة إلى الساحة الدولية الاقتصادية والعسكرية والسياسية، وروسيا استثمرت ما يكفي لفرض حضورها بصيغة جديدة وما عاد ممكناً توقع عودتها إلى الوراء، وقد فرضت معادلات جديدة ما عاد ممكناً كسرُها ولا تجاهلها، فالحوار يبدأ من تسليم أميركي بأنّ التعاون حاجة، بينما هو بالنسبة لروسيا هدف.


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SYRIAN WAR REPORT – JULY 18, 2017: ARMY ADVANCING ON ISIS-HELD TOWN OF SUKHNA



On Monday, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) repelled an attack of pro-Turkish militants in the direction of Ayn Daqnah in the northern part of Aleppo province.  According to pro-Kurdish sources, the attack was supported by Turkish artillery units.  The artillery shelling also targeted YPG positions in Herbel, Sheikh Issa, and Tel Rifat.  The YPG repelled the first wave of the attack and allegedly killed 20 pro-Turkish militants and captured a few vehicles.
On Tuesday, sporadic clashes continued in the area.  According to experts, pro-Turkish militants will not be able to break the YPG defense without direct assistance from the Turkish army.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed up by the US-led coalition airpower, recaptured the whole Yarmouk district from ISIS and entered the Nezle Shihade district in the city of Raqqah.  At the same time, US military sources denied reports that the SDF had allegedly halted its operations against ISIS because of tensions among Arab and Kurdish units of the group.
The Syrian Army Tiger Forces and Tribal forces captured the Deilla oil field south of the government-held town of Resafa in the province of Raqqah, according to pro-government sources.  The Tiger Forces and their allies are steadily clearing from ISIS key areas south of the Resafa-Ithriyah road.
Numerous pro-government sources are speculating about the expected government push from the Resafa area towards the ISIS besieged city of Deir Ezzor.  However, right now, this option looks unlikely.
In turn, government forces are developing momentum in the direction of Sukhna northeast of Palmyra.  According to local sources, the army and its allies have captured new points en route to the ISIS-held town.
Reports about alleged government forces progressing towards the ISIS-held T2 pumping station near the border with Iraq are fake.  Clashes are still ongoing in the area of Hamimah.

SYRIAN ARMY ADVANCES ON STRATEGIC ISIS-HELD TOWN OF SUKHNA, GETS CONTROL OVER HILLS NEAR IT (MAP)

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Liwa al-Quds, the National Defense Forces (NDF) and other pro-government factions have launched a push in order to reach the strategic ISIS-held town of Sukhna located at the Palmyra-Deir Ezzor road.
According to pro-government sources, the SAA, the NDF and their allies have advanced northeast of the al-Hail field and captured some hills allowing to overlook the vicinity of Sukhna.
Sukhna is surrounded by a number of hills that overlook the town. If government forces capture these hills, they will be able to establish a fire control over the town.
Syrian Army Advances On Strategic ISIS-held Town Of Sukhna, Gets Control Over Hills Near It (Map)

Pro-Syria forces advance in central Homs against ISIS

 
BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:15 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have scored a big advance against ISIS in central Homs. The attack was made on a front that has been virtually inactive for months.
Today the SAA and allied outfits captured new points and hilltops from ISIS near the al-Tafha al-Janoubyah mountain chain to the northwest of the T-4 Military Airport. According to reports, pro-government forces advanced some two kilometers in the area.
The assault by pro-government forces was backed up by Russian airstrikes.
According to a post-operation assessment provided to Al-Masdar News, pro-government forces killed at least twenty (20) ISIS militants as a result of the firefight that took place.
With the advances achieved by the SAA and its allies today, the buffer zone along the section of highway linking Homs to Palmyra as been expanded. Furthermore, the push has also brought pro-government forces closer to the strategic Huwysis area.
Whether this was just a one-off advance in the area or part of a greater offensive action is currently unknown.

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» Gas wars: Syria, Qatar, and Putin- Trump Summit حروب الغاز: سورية وقطر وقمّة بوتين ترامب

Gas wars: Syria, Qatar, and Putin- Trump Summit

يوليو 17, 2017
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Energy experts say that the Twentieth century was the century of oil par excellence, while the Twenty-first century is the gas century, and that the global status of America in the twentieth century which is associated with its dominance on oil markets, oil exploration, and export companies is threatened to be moved to Russia which has parallel strength in gas markets, in addition to the inability of Washington to be able to follow Moscow in this filed, so it is not a prediction to say that the wars of Afghanistan( 2001) Iraq( 2003 ) and Lebanon (2006) were the last oil wars, because Afghanistan was a pipeline passage of the Kazakhstan’s oil to China and India, Iraq was an oil spare reserve, while Lebanon is a sea passage of oil pipeline that links Jihan the Turkish port with Haifa, coming from within Nayako project for transferring Kazakhstan oil to the Mediterranean and Europe. The war on Syria was the first gas wars on behalf of its two allies the Russian and the Iranian the major players in the global gas market, in addition to its geographical location between Turkey with its European extension and between the Gulf on one hand and its location on the Mediterranean Sea on the other hand, so this grants a strategic value to the pipelines which pass by it. Qatar and Turkey are two pivotal players in this war, because they locate at the two sides of the pipeline which links the Qatari gas resources with Europe under German finding. Now the war of Qatar is the second war of Gas wars.
The production of the global gas market is close to three hundred billion dollars annually where Qatar takes one-third of it, while it shares with Russia and Iran the markets, which the Russians serve the European part of them, while the Qataris and the Iranians serve the Asian part. After Washington tried to produce the shale gas in response to the failure of its two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan it re-overlooked it due to the difference of cost from the Gulf oil on one hand, and the decline of oil status in confronting the gas on the other hand. The US companies spent time and money to produce the share gas; it reached the stage of entering to the markets since the beginning of the year, in a capacity that is equal 60% of the productive capacity of Qatar, but it searched for a market that absorbs its production. But the Russian gas competes it in Europe and the Qatari gas in Asia. Russia and Qatar are preparing themselves to protect their shares in the markets through price cuts. So if this happens then the US companies investigating in the shale gas will go bankrupt. The agency granted to Saudi Arabia to have control on Qatar is just a part of war, but the Russian and the Iranian protection of Qatar, its independence and its role as a commercial partner in gas market is not mere a maneuver or manipulating with adversaries or tactics to invest in the crises-market between the partners of the war on Syria but a strategic movement that is related to the earlier knowledge of the meaning of the US-Qatari crisis which the Arabs were called to cover it as camouflage, as was the image of showing the war of Syria as a revolution, opposition calls, and reformist endeavors but the password is gas.
Today a summit between the US President Donald Trump and the Russian President Vladimir Putin will be held. Between a businessman who represents his partners in the US shall gas market supported by his Secretary of State Rix Tilerson whose his file is well known, and who was appointed as a General Manager of Exxon Mobil company one of the most important involved countries in the shale gas market, and a former general manager of Russian-American Mobil Oil Gas which is interested in coordinating the US-Russian interests in the oil and gas market ,  and the godfather of Gazprom company which announced its readiness to reduce its prices to 3 dollars per unit of production instead of 5,  versus 4.5 of the American gas which is proposed to Europe, he is supported by Sergey Lavrov the consultant in the Brom Gas.
The regional files are not an obstacle in front of the understanding; their roadmap is drawn since the days of John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov talks. It is not in vain that the files are related directly with the gas market from Ukraine to Syria towards Kores and the Sea of China. The password will be Qatar and the seeking for a peaceful settlement of the crisis, as the Syrian-Iraqi borders were the password in the Russian –Iranian resolving against the US real red lines, due to the linkage of the borders with the gas pipelines which pass from Iran to the Mediterranean.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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حروب الغاز: سورية وقطر وقمّة بوتين ترامب


يوليو 7, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– يقول خبراء الطاقة إنّ القرن العشرين كان قرن النفطبامتياز، لكن القرن الحادي والعشرين هو قرن الغاز، وإنّ مكانة أميركا العالمية في القرن العشرين المقرونة بهيمنتها على أسواق النفط وشركات التنقيب والتصدير النفطية مهدّدة بالانتقال لصالح روسيا كقوة موازية تملكها في أسواق الغاز وعجز واشنطن عن مجاراة موسكو في هذا المجال، وليست مجرد تكهّنات عن المعادلة التي تقول إنّ حروب أفغانستان 2001 والعراق 2003 ولبنان 2006 كانت آخر حروب النفط. فأفغانستان ممرّ أنابيب الشركات الناقلة لنفط كازاخستان إلى الصين والهند، والعراق خزان احتياط النفط، ولبنان ممرّ بحري لأنبوب نفط يربط مرفأ جيهان التركي بحيفا آتياً من ضمن مشروع ناباكو لنفط كازاخستان إلى المتوسط وأوروبا، وأنّ الحرب على سورية هي أولى حروب الغاز، بالوكالة عن حليفيها الروسي والإيرانياللاعبين الكبيرين في سوق الغاز العالمية، وبالأصالة عن موقعها الجغرافي بين تركيا بامتدادها الأوروبي وبين الخليج من جهة، وموقعها على البحر المتوسط من جهة مقابلة، ما يمنح قيمة استراتيجية لأنابيب النفط، العابرة فيها وكانت قطر وتركيا لاعبين محوريّين في هذه الحرب كواقفين على طرفي الأنبوب الواصل من منابع الغاز القطري نحو أوروبا بتمويل ألماني، وها هي حرب قطر الحرب الثانية من حروب الغاز.

– تقارب سوق الغاز العالمية الـ 300 مليار دولار سنوياً، تقتطع قطر ثلثها، وتتقاسم مع روسيا وإيران الأسواق، التي يتولى الروس تخديم الجانب الأوروبي منها، بينما يقوم القطريون والإيرانيون بتخديم الجانب الآسيوي. وبعدما كانت واشنطن قد خاضت تجاربها لإنتاج النفط الصخري رداً على فشل حربيها في العراق وأفغانستان، وعادت فصرفت النظر عنه بسبب فوارق التكلفة عن نفط الخليج من جهة، وتراجع مكانة النفط في مواجهة الغاز من جهة مقابلة، أنفقت الشركات الأميركية وقتاً ومالاً لإنتاج الغاز الصخري، وبلغت مرحلة الاستعداد لدخول الأسواق منذ مطلع العام، بطاقة تعادل 60 في المئة من طاقة قطر الإنتاجية وتبحث عن سوق تناسب إنتاجها، حيث ينافسها الغاز الروسي في أوروبا والغاز القطري في آسيا، وحيث تستعدّ روسيا وقطر لحماية حصصهما من الأسواق بتخفيضات في الاسعار إذا تمّت ستفلس الشركات الأميركية المستثمرة في الغاز الصخري، وليست الوكالة الممنوحة للسعودية لوضع اليد على قطر إلا جزءاً من هذه الحرب، لكن الحماية الروسية والإيرانية لقطر واستقلالها وبقائها شريكاً تجارياً في سوق الغاز، ليس مجرد مناورة ولا تلاعبَ الخصوم، أو تكتيكات للاستثمار في سوق الأزمات بين شركاء الحرب على سورية، بل حركة استراتيجية تتصل باكتشاف مبكر لمغزى الأزمة القطرية الأميركية التي استدعي العرب لتغطيتها تمويهاً، كما كان الحال بتصوير حرب سورية ثورة ودعوات معارضة ومساعيَ إصلاح، وكلمة السرّ هي الغاز.

– تنعقد اليوم قمة الرئيسين الأميركي والروسي دونالد ترامب وفلاديمير بوتين. وهي في المناسبة قمة يجلس فيها على طرف الطاولة، رجل أعمال يمثل شركاءه في سوق الغاز الصخري الأميركي هو دونالد ترامب، يعاونه وزير خارجية هو ريكس تيلرسون يعرف تفاصيل ملفه عن ظهر قلب، وهو الآتي من موقع المدير العام لشركة أكسون موبيل، أحد كبار المعنيين بسوق الغاز الصخري ومدير عام سابق لشركة موبيل نفط غاز الروسية الأميركية المهتمّة بتنسيق المصالح الأميركية الروسية في سوق النفط والغاز، ويجلس قبالتهما على طرف الطاولة فلاديمير بوتين عرّاب شركة غاز بروم التي أعلنت استعدادها لتخفيض أسعارها إلى 3 دولارات للوحدة الإنتاجية، بدلاً من 5، مقابل 4 ونصف للغاز الأميركي المعروض على أوروبا، ويعاونه سيرغي لافروف مستشار الظلّ لغاز بروم.

– الملفات الإقليمية ليست عائقاً للتفاهم وخريطة طريقها مرسومة من أيام مباحثات جون كيري وسيرغي لافروف، وليس عبثاً أن تكون الملفات ترتبط مباشرة بسوق الغاز من أوكرانيا إلى سورية وصولاً إلى كوريا وبحر الصين، وكلمة السرّ ستكون قطر والسعي لتسوية سلمية للأزمة، كما كانت الحدود السورية العراقية كلمة سرّ موازية في الحسم الروسي الإيراني بوجه الخطوط الحمر الأميركية الحقيقية، لارتباط الحدود بأنابيب الغاز العابرة من إيران نحو المتوسط.



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    America and Israel versus the axis of resistance The red line between the psychological climax and the psychological warfare أميركا و«إسرائيل» مقابل محور المقاومة: الخط الأحمر بين العقدة النفسية والحرب النفسية

    America and Israel versus the axis of resistance

    The red line between the psychological climax and the psychological warfare

    Written by Nasser Kandil,
    يوليو 17, 2017
    In two successive US decades there was “the red line” term during the mandate of the former US President Barack Obama; it was revived in the era of the current President Donald Trump. The intention is not “the red line” which is often a US Hollywood made, because the goal is the concept of the red line itself. The superpower is the one which proves in every arena in which it attends as a player that it confines the other players by drawing rules of engagement, and expresses the prestige of the position by announcing a red line. Whenever the superpower is strong, its red line will be related to public issues of collisions where there is no way to build them on accusations. As the red line which the current president has inherited from his predecessor and which is related to the accusation of using the chemical weapons which will remain an accusation if it is not proved by an independent fair investigation, as long as it was proven that Washington is escaping from the serious Russian demands to cooperate in carrying it out. Thus the question becomes why did not Washington draw a red line at Aleppo’s gates and say that the entry of the Syrian army to Aleppo is a red line, as Israel which draws a similar red line entitled transferring shipments of imbalance weapons to Hezbollah. The reports of its intelligence disclosed it by asking why we never heard of a raid targeting shipments of weapons after crossing the Syrian borders to Lebanon, and the red line remained in Syria, so is Israel is subject to a red line drawn by Hezbollah that prevents it from hitting targets in Lebanon for fear of war?
    In every struggle America and Israel got accustomed to put the rules of war to nominate them by drawing red lines. It seemed that in the Syrian war these lines have faded and in need of what is like the myths to preserve their dialectical equations. While in fact, it is clear that the forces which Washington and Tel Aviv want to protect are defeated and faded. The involvement of Hezbollah in the war on Syria can be considered in itself an Israeli red line once Israel realized that at least there is no feasibility to bet on exhausting Hezbollah in this war. Since the war of Quseir in 2013 it was proven that it is an added value that will change the course of war which was planned to be prolonged if the overthrowing of Syria was unavailable where Washington and Israel play a pivotal role. But neither Israel which saw that its dream is fading dared to say that the presence of Hezbollah in Syria is red line, nor Washington dared. The same thing is applied on the arrival of the Russian and the Iranian forces and other allies. So the dream faded and was the search for the term” the red line”. Perhaps one day we will wake up and hear Trump saying that the departure of the Syrian President not his staying is red line, only to say to his Defense Minister on the next day as he did with the threats of the accusation of using chemical weapons that it seems that the Syrian President has taken our warnings into account, or Netanyahu will say that the withdrawal of Hezbollah from Syria and not its staying in it is a red line and say that our threats were effective because we protected the red line.
    When the usage of the chemical weapons was announced as a red line the US intelligence was working to use them in Benghazi in Libya where the Sarin gas was given to Al Nusra front and the Turkish consultants to be used in Ghouta, under the plea that transcending the red line is a justification for a strike that changes the balances and makes the armed groups take the lead, as said by the US reports about the fabricated  plan to  strike in the era of Obama, but the Russian and the Iranian response were to say that this strike will turn into a comprehensive war, so it was overlooked. This is known by Trump who complained from his predecessor Obama who was accused of negligence to preserve the red line, so Trump showed his ability to protect it by making what is similar to what has happened during the era of Obama by heading a strike that does not like the one intended by Obama, in order to say that we have protected the red line, but he and his administration for the first time have identified the realistic red line that is related to the courses of war when they announced that the convergence of the Syrian army and the Popular Crowd on the Syrian-Iraqi borders is a red line, but this red line has been violated.
    The new chemical game announced by America seems as a cure to the mistake of the fall of the red line and the disclosure of the elements of the US weakness by returning to the imaginary red line, and the threating on its basis, after the red line has been turned from the psychological warfare into a psychological climax, the same has happened to the Israeli whose his leaders talked about a preemptive war according to the theory of the Israeli intelligence which says that the wars with Hezbollah were all bad, and the comparison was between a bad and a worse war. Israel has no ability whatever it does to avoid the missiles of Hezbollah in a state of war after the missiles have covered all the geography which is subject to occupation, its facilities and defenses, because they can achieve accurate casualties, massive destruction, and unbearable losses. Therefore the leaders of the entity of the occupation discovered that they drew the new red line for the growing strength of Hezbollah by wavering of a preemptive war that is occurrence needs information and facts as  the ones that have the impacts of the psychological warfare on the Israeli public and which deterred it from the idea of war, so the leaders of the occupation drew a new red line by saying at the spokesman of the official of the internal front that it is not allowed to think of war because we do cannot bear it.
    The red line has become a psychological climax after it was a real war and then it turned gradually into a psychological warfare. But at the same time there is who is drawing the red line in the field. The leaders of the Popular Crowd say that we have opened Baghdad-Damascus road , and it will not be closed. The Syrian deputy- Foreign Minister Faial Mekdad says that this time the response will be different if there is an American aggression, we hope that the Americans take our warnings into considerations. Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah adds to the Israeli considerations about targeting the depth and the reverse ground incursion, the coming of hundreds of thousands to fight Israel.
    About the psychological warfare Maariv newspaper published a report about the Faculty of Public Speaking Education, it is an academic college in Tel Aviv for the graduation of political leaders, journalists, and economists, it says that the speeches of Al-Sayyed Nasrollah have a special semester that includes an explanation of the gradual strategic media superiority of Al Sayyed’s words and his psychological warfare, and how Al Sayyed built his words on honesty even in cases where the facts are painful, contrary to the Israeli leaders who often publish incorrect information within their psychological warfare or they hide important and real information. After Al Sayyed has been acquired the feature of honesty he got the confidence feature, if he promised he fulfilled and if he threatened he carried out, and what he announced as steps he will surely do. So he built the confidence which has become credibility. This report cites examples as destroying the battleship Saer on air, his dealing with the file of the captives. On the other hand the leaders of the occupation announce their intentions and goals that cannot be fulfilled, promises that cannot be come true, and threats that cannot be implemented. This semester includes an analysis of how the honesty turns into credibility, how to link the ratified elements with the hypotheses which cannot be tested in order to build a psychological deterrence system which is the basis of the psychological warfare. The Israeli words approve the facts of what Hezbollah possess as missile capacity and destruction ability, so it is enough that Al Sayyed indicates to the hypothesis of bombarding Dimona or the ammonia stocks to cause panic to the Israelis.
    The US-Israeli war is a red line drawn up by the forces and the governments in the axis of the resistance and their allies at their forefront Russia. What is going on as drawing assumptive red lines is just an escape from the recognition of committing to the original red line not an American- Israeli war. Therefore the difference is big between the red line in the psychological warfare and the red line which it turns into a psychological climax.
    Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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    أميركا و«إسرائيل» مقابل محور المقاومة: الخط الأحمر بين العقدة النفسية والحرب النفسية

    يوليو 4, 2017


    ناصر قنديل

    – في عهدين أميركيين متعاقبين عاش مصطلح الخط الأحمر مع ولاية الرئيس السابق باراك أوباما وعادت محاولات إحيائه في عهد الرئيس الحالي دونالد ترامب. والقصد ليس موضوع الخط الأحمر الذي غالباً ما يكون تصنيعاً أميركياً هوليودياً، لأنّ الهدف هو مفهوم الخط الأحمر نفسه. فالدولة العظمى هي التي تثبت أنها في كلّ ساحة تحضر فيها كلاعب تتقدم اللاعبين الآخرين برسم قواعد الاشتباك، والتي يُشار إلى مهابة القوة فيها بالإعلان عن وجود خط أحمر، وكلما كانت الدولة العظمى قوية كان خطها الأحمر متصلاً بقضايا علنية للتصادمات لا مجال لبنائها على اتهامات كما هو حال الخط الأحمر الذي ورثه الرئيس الحالي عن سلفه والمتصل بالاتهام باستخدام السلاح الكيميائي الذي يبقى اتهاماً لم يتمّ إثباته بتحقيق مستقلّ ونزيه، طالما ثبت أنّ واشنطن تتهرّب من طلبات روسية جدية للتعاون في إجرائه، فيصير السؤال لماذا لم ترسم واشنطن خطاً أحمر عند أبواب حلب مثلاً، وتقول إنّ دخول الجيش السوري حلب خط أحمر، ومثلها «إسرائيل» التي ترسم خطاً أحمر مشابهاً تسمّيه نقل شحنات أسلحة كاسرة للتوازن لحزب الله، فضحتها تقارير مخابراتها بالتساؤل لماذا لم نسمع يوماً عن غارة تستهدف شحنة سلاح بعد عبورها الحدود السورية إلى لبنان، وبقي الخط الأحمر في سورية أم أنّ «إسرائيل» خاضعة لخط أحمر رسمه حزب الله يمنعها من ضرب أهداف في لبنان خشية نشوب حرب؟

    – اعتادت أميركا واعتادت «إسرائيل» أنهما في كلّ صراع تضعان قواعد الحرب وتسمّيانها حرصاً على تعجرف القوة برسم الخطوط الحمر. وبدا في الحرب السورية أنّ هذه الخطوط تبهت وتحتاج إلى ما يشبه الخرافات للحفاظ على معادلاتها الكلامية، بينما في الواقع واضح أنّ القوى التي تريد واشنطن وتل أبيب حمايتها تُهزم وتتلاشى، فدخول حزب الله الحرب في سورية بحدّ ذاته يصلح ليكون خطاً أحمر إسرائيلياً، بمجرد أن أدركت «إسرائيل» على الأقلّ لا جدوى الرهان على استنزاف حزب الله في هذه الحرب، فمنذ حرب القصيْر عام 2013 ثبت أنه قيمة مضافة ستفعل فعلها في تغيير وجهة الحرب التي تريد لها الاستمرار إذا تعذّر إسقاط سورية لحساب الحلف الذي تقوده واشنطن وتلعب «إسرائيل» فيه دوراً محورياً، لكن «إسرائيل» التي ترى بأمّ عينها حلمها يتلاشى لم تجرؤ يوماً على القول إنّ وجود حزب الله في سورية خط أحمر دونه حرب شاملة، ولا واشنطن تجرّأت، وكذلك بالنسبة لقدوم القوات الروسية والإيرانية وسواها من الحلفاء، حتى ضاع حلم الحليفين معاً، وبقي البحث عن وهم يعلّق عليه مصطلح الخط الأحمر، وربما نستفيق يوماً نسمع ترامب يقول إنّ رحيل الرئيس السوري خط أحمر وليس بقاءه، فقط ليقول وزير دفاعه في اليوم التالي كما فعل مع التهديد بتهمة استعمال سورية للكيميائي، يبدو أنّ الرئيس السوري قد أخذ تحذيراتنا بالحساب أو يخرج نتنياهو ويقول إنّ انسحاب حزب الله من سورية وليس بقاءه فيها خط أحمر ليخرج ويقول لقد فعلت تهديداتنا فعلها وحمينا الخط الأحمر.

    – عندما أُعلن الكيميائي خطاً أحمر كانت المخابرات الأميركية تشتغل لاستعماله من بنغازي في ليبيا، حيث سلّم غاز السارين لجبهة النصرة ومستشارين أتراك، ليُستعمل في الغوطة، ويصير القول عن تخطي الخط الأحمر مبرّراً لضربة تغيّر الموازين وتردّ للجماعات المسلحة قدرة إمساك زمام المبادرة، كما تقول التقارير الأميركية عن خطة الضربة التي صمّمت في عهد أوباما. جاء الردّ الروسي والإيراني يقول إنها ستتحوّل حرباً شاملة، فصار صرف النظر عنها. وهذا يعلمه ترامب الذي يتنمّر على سلفه أوباما باتهامه بالتخاذل مع تخطي الخط الأحمر ويظهر عنتريات القدرة على حمايته بتصنيع ما يشبه ما جرى أيام أوباما لتوجيه ضربة لا تشبه تلك التي كان ينوي أوباما توجيهها، ليخرج ويقول لقد حمينا الخط الأحمر، لكن ترامب وإدارته وقعا في ما لم يقع فيه أوباما، فللمرة الأولى حدّدوا خطاً أحمر واقعياً يتصل بمسارات الحرب عندما أعلنوا اعتبار بلوغ الجيش السوري والحشد الشعبي الحدود السورية العراقية خطاً أحمر، وتمّ الدوس على الخط الأحمر.

    – لعبة الكيميائي الجديدة المعلنة أميركياً تبدو معالجة لخطيئة سقوط الخط الأحمر وانفضاح عناصر الضعف الأميركي، بالعودة للخط الأحمر الوهمي، والاحتماء به مجدّداً عبر التهديد. وقد تحوّل الخط الأحمر من حرب نفسية إلى عقدة نفسية، ومثله وقع «الإسرائيلي» بشيء مشابه عندما تحدّث قادته عن حرب استباقية، وفق نظرية المخابرات «الإسرائيلية» التي تقول إنّ الحروب مع حزب الله كلها سيئة، وإنّ المفاضلة بين حرب سيئة وحرب أسوأ، وأن لا قدرة لـ»إسرائيل» مهما فعلت على تجنّب صواريخ حزب الله في حال وقوع حرب، وقد صارت الصواريخ تغطي الجغرافيا الخاضعة للاحتلال كلّها ومنشآتها ودفاعاتها، وقادرة على تحقيق إصابات دقيقة ودمار هائل وخسائر لا تُحتمل، ليكتشف قادة الكيان أنهم رسموا الخط الأحمر الجديد لتنامي قوة حزب الله بالتلويح بحرب استباقية يستدعي تسويقها إيراد معلومات ووقائع فعلت فعل الحرب النفسية على الجمهور «الإسرائيلي»، وردعته عن فكرة الحرب، ليتولى رسم خط أحمر لقياداته، بالقول بلسان مسؤول الجبهة الداخلية ممنوع التفكير في الحرب، فليس لنا طاقة على تحمّلها.

    – يصير الخط الأحمر عقدة نفسية بعد أن كان حرباً فعلية وتحوّل تدريجاً لحرب نفسية، لكن في المقابل هناك مَن يرسم الخط الأحمر في الميدان، فيقول قادة الحشد الشعبي، طريق بغداد – دمشق فتحناها ولن تُغلَق، ويقول نائب وزير الخارجية السوري الدكتور فيصل المقداد، هذه المرّة سيكون الردّ مختلفاً إذا وقع عدوان أميركي ونأمل أن يأخذ الأميركيون تحذيراتنا في حساباتهم، ويضيف السيد حسن نصرالله لدفتر الحسابات «الإسرائيلية» عن ضرب العمق والتوغّل البري المعاكس، مجيء مئات الآلاف لقتال «إسرائيل».

    – حول الحرب النفسية تنشر «معاريف» تقريراً عن كلية تعليم التحدّث أمام الجمهور. وهي كلية أكاديمية في تل أبيب لتخريج القادة السياسيين والإعلاميين والاقتصاديين، وتقول إنّ خطابات السيد نصرالله لها فصل تدريسي خاص، يتضمّن شرحاً لتدرج التفوّق الاستراتيجي الإعلامي لخطاب السيد وحربه النفسية. ومن هذا الفصل كيف بنى السيد خطابه على الصدق وراكم عليه الصدق دائماً حتى عندما تكون الحقيقة مؤلمة، بخلاف القادة «الإسرائيليين» الذين كثيراً ما ينشرون معلومات غير صحيحة ضمن حربهم النفسية أو يحجبون معلومات هامة وحقيقية. وبعد اكتساب صفة الصادق راكم السيد على هذه الصفة الثقة بأنه إذا وعد وفى وإذا هدّد نفّذ وإنّ ما يعلنه من خطوات سيفعله حكماً، فبنى الثقة التي صارت مصداقية. ويورد هنا أمثلة كتدمير البارجة ساعر على الهواء، وتعامله مع ملف الأسرى، وفي المقابل يقوم قادة الكيان بالإعلان عن نيات وأهداف لا يستطيعون تحقيقها ووعود لا تقبل الوفاء بها وتهديدات غير قابلة للتنفيذ. ويتضمّن الفصل تحليلاً لمعنى تحوّل الصدق مصداقية، ليصير ربط العناصر الممكن تصديقها بالفرضيات التي لا يمكن اختبارها، لبناء منظومة ردع نفسي هي أصل الحرب النفسية، فالكلام «الإسرائيلي» يوثّق حقائق ما يمتلكه حزب الله من طاقة صاروخية وقدرة تدمير، فيكفي أن يؤشر السيد لفرضية قصف ديمونا أو مستوعبات الأمونيا حتى يُصاب «الإسرائيليون» بالهلع.

    – الحرب الأميركية «الإسرائيلية» خط أحمر رسمته القوى والحكومات في محور المقاومة وحلفائهم وعلى رأسهم روسيا، وما يجري من رسم خطوط حمراء افتراضية ليس إلا تهرّباً من الاعتراف بالالتزام بالخط الأحمر الأصلي، لا حرب أميركية «إسرائيلية». والفرق كبير بين الخط الأحمر في الحرب النفسية، والخط الأحمر عندما يتحوّل عقدة نفسية.



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